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GMAT范文-31-智课网

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发表于 2017-7-6 23:06:45 | 显示全部楼层
GMAT 官方写作题库范文赏析
31. The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.

“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

范文
The consulting firm in this argument recommends transferring investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because coffee demand will rise while cola demand will fall during the next 20 years. This assertion is based on the expectation that the number of older adults will increase over the next 20 years as well as the statistical data that shows that age has been reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee consumption increases with age while cola consumption declines over the same time. This financial advice may not be sound for three reasons.

First, the argument unwarrantedly assumes that  supply conditions will remain stable over the next twenty years. However, as with any business, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as well as other business expenditures may fluctuate greatly over a long period of time. These factors may have drastic consequences for the prices of coffee and cola, which may then affect demand as well as the investments in coffee and cola. Without consideration of other factors which can critically alter the value of a coffee or cola company, the firm  is imprudent in justifying its recommendation.
Secondly, the argument fails to consider the timing related to increased coffee consumption. It is possible that the population will age dramatically during the next five years and then remain unchanged over the following 15 years, depending on demographic shifts. Another possibility is that the increase in average age will occur toward the latter half of the 20-year period. An investor has many more opportunities to profit over both the short and long term in the first scenario.  This assumes that the investor can change or swap investments along the way. If the second scenario reveals these facts, the firm’s recommendation would be undermined.

Finally, the firm relies excessively on studies that draw a correlation between coffee and cola consumption and age. The firm does not show evidence which confirms the reliability of such studies. While the phrase “studies suggest” on the surface appears to make these claims credibile, the phrase is also quite unclear, rendering the assertions worthless in the face of a lack of evidence to justify them.

In summary, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To evaluate this recommendation more clearly, we require additional information about the relevant study upon which it depends. We also need more exacting and reliable projections of population trends during the next 20 years to correlate with the current data.
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发表于 2017-8-8 19:03:45 | 显示全部楼层
不求风骚惊天下,但求猥琐动世人,下载资料为这般。
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发表于 2017-8-8 19:09:10 | 显示全部楼层
我只是来那经验,用经验下资料的。
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发表于 2017-8-9 09:36:40 | 显示全部楼层
楼主你知道的太多了,我需要的资料你都有。
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发表于 2017-8-9 09:38:40 | 显示全部楼层
我只是来要资料的,貌似还不够十五字
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发表于 2017-8-9 09:39:46 | 显示全部楼层
彪悍的人生不需要解释,下载资料不需要理由。
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发表于 2017-8-9 09:44:49 | 显示全部楼层
楼主的资料,都惊到我的小伙伴了。
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发表于 2017-8-15 17:26:51 | 显示全部楼层
屌丝孤独一世,资料伴我走。
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发表于 2017-8-15 17:36:37 | 显示全部楼层
你造么,资料下载,根本停不下来
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发表于 2017-8-22 17:59:57 | 显示全部楼层
简直就是棒棒棒极了~马住慢慢挑选合适的资料下载
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